4.4 Billion Barrels Stopped

3,000+ arrests. 1000+ sent to trial. 100+ sent to prison. 

Time, money, and tears have been invested into our campaign of last ditch resistance against oil and gas. Amidst the headlines of catastrophic flooding, another failed COP, global emissions continuing to rise, state repression and a rising toll of death and misery, it doesn’t feel like we’re winning, but…

Our first demand, the immediate halt of new licensing for oil and gas projects in the UK has been met. And the impact is stunning in its scale.

We are basing our analysis off of the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA)‘s most recent report on the fossil fuel reserves and resources remaining in the North Sea. You can see the report, complete with figures here.

How did we get here?

In the summer of 2023, as we staged daily marches in the capital, Labour leader Keir Starmer bowed to increasing pressure from civil society and scientists, and announced that if Labour were in power, they would concede to our demand of no new oil and gas. We already had the support of the Liberal Democrats, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Independents—and while we celebrated privately, this was not the inspiring win we needed to declare victory.

We were right to be cautious. In response to Labour’s position, our then-government pushed new legislation mandating annual new oil and gas licensing, pushing any chance of a win for Just Stop Oil into the fringes of imagination. But by fortune, everything changed. Facing crumbling support, Sunak felt forced into calling an early election, and an array of toxic Tory legislation ‘fell’ before it could be passed.

Labour then went on to win power as support for the Conservatives collapsed, and Labour have now confirmed their commitment to issuing no new licenses.

How much oil have we stopped?

Oil and gas extraction in the North Sea is already declining, but there are at least 15 billion barrels of hydrocarbons remaining— though not all of it is economically viable to drill according to the NSTA. Extractable deposits are split into Reserves (already licensed and developed), Contingent Resources (known deposits not yet developed) Prospective Resources (estimated deposits yet to be discovered). Contingent and Prospective Resources are estimates, with a range of figures based on probability. We are using the mean.

Have a correction or suggestion? Contact info @ juststopoil.org

In total, an estimated 6.4B barrels of oil, beyond tapped reserves, could be developed in the North Sea. Of this, the majority is yet to be licensed. 4.4 billion barrels of oil, equivalent to 1.8 billion tonnes of CO2 if burnt, more than 4 years of UK total emissions.

This is the prize of our work. 4.4 billion barrels of oil, that under the current government, will remain untapped.

4.4 billion barrels stored safely underground.

In terms of our campaign, that’s over 1.3 million barrels of oil per arrest.

It’s 24 million barrels of oil per imprisonment.

Alongside those that have taken action, there are hundreds of people that have, and continue to, dedicate time and effort to run this campaign outside of arrest. We have to pay essential living expenses of those that are dedicating their time to this fight. We need financial support. But we are underfunded and overstretched.

Yet funding groups like Just Stop Oil is so clearly effective. From our founding in 2022 to the date of Labour’s announcement, Just Stop Oil spent approximately £5 million on trainings, support, essential living costs and the odd bit of cornstarch. For context, that’s less than 10% of The Donkey Sanctuary’s annual budget. 

We are punching far above our weight compared to every charity there is. When you look at celebrated carbon offset schemes, things are even starker; we are, pound for pound, more than 2500x more effective at keeping carbon in the ground.

We can’t claim to be solely responsible for this win. We’re not the only campaign that’s demanded an end to oil and gas licensing. From Greenpeace to Friends of the Earth, groups have joined our call to action, and supported in the streets, in the courts and in the press. These stats tell a simple story in an increasingly complex situation.

But it is undeniable that without the dedication and determination of Just Stop Oil, those groups would not have come close to stopping new oil and gas licenses on their own. Nor can we have any faith that our politicians would have done the right thing without extended public pressure: Keir Starmer’s Labour are committing billions to the mirage of carbon capture, pushing ahead with road expansion, delaying boiler and I.C.E car replacements and are rumoured to be pushing for airport expansion, while imprisoning those that dare stand in their way.

What we need to do next

Truthfully, our demand was never going to be enough. It was never meant to be enough. It was meant as a line in the sand, to say here and no further. We will continue in resistance and are building capacity for 2025 to stand against the state. Our fight will continue. We will stand against the burning of oil and gas until it stops.

Since Just Stop Oil’s founding, we have received large donations from Dale Vince, Adam McKay, and the Climate Emergency Fund. This money couldn’t last forever, and we are now no longer able to rely on it. Instead, the British public have stepped up; this year small donations from ordinary people have made up the biggest source of funds for our campaign.

Ordinary people make Just Stop Oil possible. We would not be able to continue with our campaign without the financial support of thousands of ordinary people. Tens of thousands have donated to the campaign, making action possible even in the face of severe repression.

But, as you read this this, only a small a core group of 2,000 people donate a small amount every month. This is not enough.

Stopping new oil and gas was the easy part. Our campaign now is a direct challenge to those running our oil-and-gas-dependent-state. They will not go down without a fight. We are already seeing the start of this with 36 people imprisoned this year alone.

We do not yet know how far the state will go to protect the oil and gas economy. We need proper funding to keep up the fight. What we are asking for is simply an hour or less of your hourly wage, every month, until we win. Can you step up?